September PPI Jumps 1.3%, Biggest Rise Since 2022, as Energy Surges

Wholesale prices rose 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly increase since March 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday, Oct. 15. The Producer Price Index for final demand was up 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month gain since December 2022, as energy costs surged.

Final demand prices rose 0.5% in August, a figure the BLS revised with this release. The annual rate topped the 5.3% consensus listed by Trading Economics and was up from 5.6% in August.

What did the September PPI show?

Goods led. Prices for final demand goods rose 2.6%, the largest increase since the data were first calculated in December 2009, the BLS said. More than 80% of that rise came from final demand energy, which jumped 10.8%. Gasoline prices alone rose 20.3% and accounted for half of the goods increase. Food prices rose 1.2%, while egg prices fell 39.7%.

Services prices rose 0.8%, the most since April. Nearly half of that came from a 1.4% rise in trade margins, the BLS said, and transportation and warehousing prices rose 3.4%.

Final demand PPI	September	August	12 months to Sept.	12 months to Aug.
Total final demand	+1.3%	+0.5%	+6.3%	+5.6%
Less foods, energy and trade services	+0.5%	+0.3%	+5.0%	+4.8%
Final demand goods	+2.6%	+1.1%	—	—
Final demand energy	+10.8%	+4.5%	—	—
Final demand services	+0.8%	+0.2%	—	—

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A. Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted; 12-month changes are not. August figures as revised Oct. 15.

What is core PPI?

The BLS's narrowest headline gauge strips out foods, energy and trade services, the margins earned by wholesalers and retailers. That index rose 0.5% in September after 0.3% in August, and 5.0% over 12 months. It shows price pressure beyond fuel, though at a much slower monthly pace than the headline.

How does PPI fit with September CPI?

The two reports point the same way. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, the BLS said Wednesday. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the CPI, compared with 20.3% at the producer level.

Producer prices measure what businesses receive for goods and services, so they track costs earlier in the supply chain. The two indexes are built differently and do not translate one for one. Our research note on September CPI and the Fed's Oct. 28 decision has the consumer-side detail, and our Treasury curve brief has Wednesday's yield closes.

What does this mean for the Fed's October meeting?

It adds to the inflation evidence officials will weigh on Oct. 27–28. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16. Minutes of that meeting say "most participants assessed that another increase" in the range "would likely be appropriate by year end," while stressing that decisions "would depend on incoming information." Many officials also warned that "the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk" of broader price pressures.

The decision is due Wednesday, Oct. 28, according to the Fed's meeting calendar. See our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027 for every date and decision.