3-Year Treasury Auction Yield Jumps to 4.932% From 4.474% in September

The Treasury Department sold $58 billion of new 3-year notes on Tuesday, Oct. 6, at a high yield of 4.932%, according to TreasuryDirect auction results. That is 0.458 percentage point above the 4.474% the government paid at the September 3-year auction. The new notes carry a 4-7/8% coupon and mature Oct. 15, 2029.

3-year auction results: October vs. September

Measure	Oct. 6	Sept. 8
Offering amount	$58 billion	$58 billion
High yield	4.932%	4.474%
Median yield	4.880%	4.430%
Coupon	4.875%	4.375%
Bid-to-cover ratio	2.62	2.72
Primary dealers, share of competitive awards	10.7%	10.9%
Direct bidders, share	31.7%	26.9%
Indirect bidders, share	57.6%	62.1%

Source: TreasuryDirect auction results. Shares are calculated from accepted competitive tenders.

Bidders submitted $151.7 billion for the $58 billion offering, Treasury said. Competitive bids at the 4.932% high yield received 8.35% of the amount they sought. The Federal Reserve's portfolio added $1.38 billion on top of the offering, for $59.4 billion accepted in total.

Was demand for the 3-year note weak?

It was a little softer than last month, but not by much. The bid-to-cover ratio, which compares bids received with the amount sold, slipped to 2.62 from 2.72. Indirect bidders took a smaller share, while direct bidders took more. Primary dealers were left with about the same share as in September.

How Treasury yields closed on Oct. 6

Yields fell at every maturity from three months to 30 years on Tuesday, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve.

Maturity	Sept. 30	Oct. 5	Oct. 6
2-year	4.88%	4.84%	4.79%
3-year	5.00%	4.97%	4.88%
10-year	5.29%	5.31%	5.27%
30-year	5.64%	5.66%	5.64%
10-year minus 2-year	0.41	0.47	0.48

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates.

The 10-year yield eased to 5.27% from 5.31% on Monday, which was its highest close since 2002, as our report on the 10-year yield explained. The 3-year yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 4.88%, the largest drop among the maturities in the table. The auction's 4.932% high yield was set at the 1 p.m. ET bidding deadline, Treasury said, so it does not match the end-of-day curve reading.

What comes next for bonds and the Fed?

Two events land on Wednesday, Oct. 7. Treasury will auction $39 billion of reopened 10-year notes, a 9-year, 10-month security, followed by $22 billion of reopened 30-year bonds on Thursday, Oct. 8, according to TreasuryDirect's schedule of upcoming auctions. The Fed's calendar also lists Oct. 7 for the minutes of its Sept. 15–16 meeting, when it raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, according to the Fed's Sept. 16 statement.

The Fed's next rate decision is due at the end of its Oct. 27–28 meeting. Our Fed calendar for 2026–27 lists the dates, and this morning's August trade deficit brief covers the latest economic data. More coverage is in the Capital Markets section.