FOMC Minutes and $39 Billion 10-Year Auction: What to Watch Today
The Fed releases minutes of its Sept. 15–16 rate hike at 2 p.m. ET Oct. 7, an hour after a $39 billion 10-year note sale, with the 10-year yield at 5.27%.
Why it matters
- The Fed releases minutes of its Sept. 15–16 meeting, where it raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
- Treasury sells $39 billion of reopened 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. The same note sold at a 4.834% high yield in September, while the 10-year par yield closed at 5.27% on Oct. 6.
- Futures put the chance of another hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting at 21.6%, down from about 51% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
Two events test the bond market on Wednesday, Oct. 7. Treasury auctions $39 billion of reopened 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET, according to TreasuryDirect. Then the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its Sept. 15–16 meeting at 2 p.m. ET, according to the Fed's calendar. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.27% on Oct. 6.
What did the Fed decide in September?
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, according to its Sept. 16 statement. The statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that the move "will support a timelier return" to the 2% goal.
At his press conference that day, Chairman Kevin Warsh said "inflation is too high and has been for too long." He also said he "would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," and that "this view was widely shared by the Committee." Asked about future moves, he said, "I'm not in the forward guidance business," according to the Fed's transcript.
The minutes will give a fuller account of the committee's discussion.
What the projections showed
In the Summary of Economic Projections, the median official saw the fed funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, up from 3.8% in June. That is above the 3.875% midpoint of the current range. Of 18 participants, 12 put the year-end midpoint at 4.125% and four at 4.375%. Two saw no further change.
| Median projection | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| PCE inflation | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, Sept. 16, 2026.
How has the curve moved since the hike?
Long yields have risen more than short ones, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve.
| Maturity | Sept. 15 | Sept. 16 | Oct. 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month | 4.11% | 4.14% | 4.21% |
| 2-year | 4.67% | 4.74% | 4.79% |
| 10-year | 5.00% | 5.01% | 5.27% |
| 30-year | 5.36% | 5.35% | 5.64% |
| 10-year minus 2-year | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
Monday's 5.31% close was the 10-year's highest since 2002, as our report on the 10-year yield explained.
What to watch in the 10-year auction
Today's note is the 4-5/8% security maturing Aug. 15, 2036, first sold in August. Treasury last reopened it on Sept. 9.
| September 10-year reopening | Result |
|---|---|
| Amount | $39 billion |
| High yield | 4.834% |
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 2.71 |
| Indirect bidders' share | 79.2% |
| Primary dealers' share | 4.3% |
Source: TreasuryDirect. Shares are of accepted competitive tenders.
With the 10-year par yield 0.44 percentage point above its Sept. 9 close of 4.83%, the auction will show what investors demand to lock in at higher levels. Tuesday's 3-year sale drew a 2.62 bid-to-cover ratio, down from 2.72 in September, as our 3-year auction brief detailed. A $22 billion 30-year bond reopening follows on Thursday, Oct. 8.
Is the Fed expected to hike again in October?
Traders see it as less likely than a week ago. The chance of a hike of at least a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting stood at 21.6% on Wednesday morning, down from about 51% a week earlier, Reuters reported, citing CME FedWatch. Markets priced a 68.6% chance of a hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, the report said.
See our Fed calendar for 2026–27 for meeting dates and our August trade deficit brief for the latest data.
Sources
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Transcript of Chairman Warsh's press conference, Sept. 16, 2026 (PDF)
- Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, Sept. 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Board members
- Federal Reserve, Calendar of releases and FOMC meeting calendars
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates, 2026 (CSV)
- TreasuryDirect, Upcoming auctions and auctioned notes
- TreasuryDirect, 9-Year 11-Month Note auction results, Sept. 9, 2026 (PDF)
- Reuters via Investing.com, Dollar holds losses as markets await Fed minutes, speakers, Oct. 7, 2026
