October CPI Rises 0.4%, Core 0.3%, Topping Cleveland Fed Nowcast
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core 0.3%, BLS said Nov. 10. BLS published no 12-month rate because October 2025 data were never collected.
Why it matters
- The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after 0.6% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, Nov. 10. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third straight month.
- BLS did not publish 12-month changes for October because it did not collect survey data for October 2025 during a lapse in appropriations, so there is no official year-over-year CPI rate this month.
- Both readings beat the Cleveland Fed's nowcast of 0.24% for headline and 0.21% for core. Three straight 0.3% core gains work out to about 3.7% at an annual rate, by our calculation from rounded BLS figures.
Data Brief: a summary of published data, with our notes on what it shows.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6% rise in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, Nov. 10. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, the same as in August and September.
Food prices rose 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September. Shelter rose 0.3%.
Why is there no year-over-year CPI rate for October?
BLS said it "did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations," and so it "cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable." That means there is no official annual inflation rate for October. The last published 12-month rate was 3.7% for September, with core at 2.6%, BLS's September release shows. The all-items index reached 337.511 in October (1982–84 = 100), BLS said.
What did October CPI show?
| CPI component (seasonally adjusted) | October | September |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.4% | +0.6% |
| Core (less food and energy) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Food | +0.5% | 0.0% |
| Food at home | +0.4% | — |
| Food away from home | +0.5% | — |
| Energy | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| Gasoline | +1.0% | +9.1% |
| Shelter | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| Owners' equivalent rent | +0.3% | — |
| Rent | +0.2% | — |
| Medical care | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Motor vehicle insurance | +0.7% | — |
| Recreation | +0.8% | — |
| New vehicles | +0.2% | — |
| Used cars and trucks | -1.2% | — |
| Communication | -0.1% | — |
Source: BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Nov. 10, and September 2026 release. A dash means the figure was not among those we took from the releases.
Gasoline fell 0.7% before seasonal adjustment, BLS said; seasonal factors turned that into a 1.0% rise.
How did CPI compare with forecasts?
Both figures came in above the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation nowcast, which put October CPI at 0.24% and core at 0.21% as of Nov. 9. Our October CPI preview laid out those estimates. A nowcast is a model estimate, not a consensus survey.
Core has risen 0.3% in each of the last three months, BLS's Table A shows. Compounded, that is about 3.7% at an annual rate, by our calculation; because BLS rounds monthly changes to one decimal place, the true figure could differ slightly. Headline CPI's 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.4% over the same three months work out to about 5.7% annualized on the same basis.
What does October CPI mean for the Fed's December meeting?
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. Its statement said "inflation remains elevated" and pointed to "a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The Fed's last 2026 meeting is Dec. 8–9; see the FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027. BLS will release November CPI on Thursday, Dec. 10, the day after that meeting ends, so October's report is the last CPI the Fed will see before it decides.
Our October jobs report brief covers the labor data the Fed will also weigh.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – October 2026 (Nov. 10, 2026), including Table A
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting (accessed Nov. 10, 2026; last updated Nov. 9)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026 and FOMC meeting calendars (accessed Nov. 10, 2026)
