October CPI Preview: Inflation Data Due Nov. 10 After 3.7% September
BLS releases October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 10. September prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier and core 2.6%; a Cleveland Fed nowcast sees 3.74%.
Why it matters
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10. In September, the CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier; core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% and 2.6%.
- The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, last updated Nov. 6, puts October CPI at 0.24% on the month and 3.74% over the year, with core at 0.21% and 2.48%.
- October CPI is a key inflation reading ahead of the Fed's Dec. 8–9 meeting. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 and said inflation "remains elevated.
Data Brief: a summary of published data, with our notes on what it shows.
Updated Nov. 10: The October CPI rose 0.4% on the month and core prices rose 0.3%, above the Cleveland Fed nowcast's 0.24% and 0.21%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. BLS did not publish 12-month changes because October 2025 data were not collected during a lapse in appropriations. See our October CPI report.
The October Consumer Price Index comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. In September, consumer prices rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% from a year earlier, while core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% and 2.6%.
The report lands the same day Treasury auctions $42 billion of 10-year notes, and a day before the Veterans Day holiday.
What did September CPI show?
Energy drove the September gain, BLS said. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month, and the energy index was up 20.4% from a year earlier.
| CPI component | Sept. 2026, monthly | 12 months to Sept. |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +3.7% |
| Core (less food and energy) | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Energy | +5.2% | +20.4% |
| Food | 0.0% | +2.5% |
| Shelter | +0.4% | +3.2% |
Source: BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026, released Oct. 14. Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted; 12-month figures are not.
Our research note on September CPI covers how that report fed into the Fed's October meeting.
What is expected for October CPI?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation nowcast, a model estimate updated each business day, put October CPI at 0.24% on the month and 3.74% over the year as of Nov. 6. It put core CPI at 0.21% on the month and 2.48% over the year. That would leave headline inflation near September's 3.7% and core slightly below September's 2.6%. A nowcast is a model estimate, not an official figure, and the actual reading can differ.
What does the Fed watch in the CPI report?
The Fed's Oct. 28 statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that more information would help the Committee set policy "to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase.
October CPI is one of the main inflation reports before the Fed's last 2026 meeting on Dec. 8–9; see the FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027. The labor data since then have been firm: payrolls rose 165,000 in October and average hourly earnings 3.1% from a year earlier, BLS said Nov. 6; see our October jobs report brief.
What else is on the calendar this week?
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon., Nov. 9 | $58 billion 3-year note auction (1 p.m. ET) |
| Tue., Nov. 10 | October CPI (8:30 a.m. ET); $42 billion 10-year note auction (1 p.m. ET) |
| Wed., Nov. 11 | Veterans Day: SIFMA recommends a full U.S. bond market close |
| Thu., Nov. 12 | $25 billion 30-year bond auction (1 p.m. ET) |
Sources: BLS, TreasuryDirect, SIFMA. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% on Friday, Nov. 6, and the 2-year at 4.51%, Treasury data show; our Treasury auction schedule and results lists every sale.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (Oct. 14, 2026; accessed Nov. 9, 2026), including the scheduled Nov. 10 release date
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting (accessed Nov. 9, 2026; last updated Nov. 6)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendars (accessed Nov. 9, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation – October 2026 (Nov. 6, 2026)
- SIFMA, Fixed Income Market Close Recommendation for the U.S. Veterans Day Holiday (Oct. 28, 2026)
- TreasuryDirect, upcoming auctions data (accessed Nov. 9, 2026)
- U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 2026 (accessed Nov. 9, 2026; latest row Nov. 6)
