September CPI Preview: Inflation Data Due Oct. 14, 10-Year at 5.24%

The September Consumer Price Index arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 14, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. It is the last CPI report scheduled before the Fed's Oct. 27–28 policy meeting. In August, the CPI rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% from a year earlier, the BLS said.

The bond market goes into the release with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24% after Friday's close, according to the Treasury Department.

What did August CPI show?

Energy drove the August gain. The index for gasoline rose 3.9% in August, "accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase," the BLS said in its Sept. 11 release. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in July.

August 2026 CPI	1 month (seasonally adjusted)	12 months
All items	+0.4%	+3.4%
Core (less food and energy)	+0.3%	+2.4%
Energy	+2.1%	+16.3%
Food	+0.1%	+2.7%
Shelter	+0.3%	+3.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sept. 11, 2026.

The 12-month core rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. The all-items rate held at 3.4%, the same as for the 12 months ending July. The gap between the two is mostly energy, which was up 16.3% from a year earlier.

When is September CPI released, and what else is on the calendar?

The CPI comes out Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Monday, Oct. 12, is Columbus Day. The BLS has no release that day, and the Fed lists it as a holiday. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association lists Columbus Day, Oct. 12, among its 2026 U.S. holiday recommendations for bond markets.

Date (ET)	Release	Source
Wed., Oct. 14, 8:30 a.m.	Consumer Price Index and Real Earnings, September	BLS
Wed., Oct. 14, 2 p.m.	Beige Book	Federal Reserve
Thu., Oct. 15, 8:30 a.m.	Producer Price Index, September	BLS
Thu., Oct. 15, 8:30 a.m.	Retail sales, September (advance)	Census Bureau
Fri., Oct. 16, 8:30 a.m.	Import and export prices, September	BLS
Fri., Oct. 16, 9:15 a.m.	Industrial production, September	Federal Reserve

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled for a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok on Oct. 15, according to the Fed's calendar.

Where did Treasury yields close Friday?

Yields rose slightly on Friday but ended the week lower. The 2-year yield closed at 4.80%, up from 4.75% on Thursday, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up from 5.22%, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve.

Maturity	Oct. 2	Oct. 8	Oct. 9
3-month	4.19%	4.23%	4.25%
2-year	4.83%	4.75%	4.80%
5-year	5.06%	4.99%	5.02%
10-year	5.28%	5.22%	5.24%
30-year	5.63%	5.60%	5.60%
10-year minus 2-year	0.45	0.47	0.44

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

What do consumers expect for inflation?

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in October from 4.6% in September, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers. Long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. The sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1.

Why it matters for credit and rates

A hot or cool CPI reading feeds directly into rate expectations. This week we covered the Fed minutes on another possible hike and Governor Christopher Waller's case for more rate hikes. In credit, the CCC junk bond spread has widened while broader spreads held steady. Meeting dates are in our Fed calendar for 2026–27.