10-Year Treasury Yield Falls 15 Basis Points in Week to 5.09%

The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 5.09% on Friday, Oct. 16, down 15 basis points from its Oct. 9 close of 5.24%, according to the Treasury Department's daily par yield curve. It was the 10-year's lowest close since Sept. 22.

Yields fell across the curve even as the week's inflation reports came in hot. The Treasury's data has no entry for Monday, Oct. 12, so the week covers four sessions. The 10-year closed lower in each of them.

How did Treasury yields change this week?

Longer maturities fell more than shorter ones, so the curve flattened. The 30-year yield fell 17 basis points and the 2-year 6 basis points.

Maturity	Oct. 9 close	Oct. 16 close	Weekly change
2-year	4.80%	4.74%	-0.06
5-year	5.02%	4.89%	-0.13
10-year	5.24%	5.09%	-0.15
30-year	5.60%	5.43%	-0.17
10s–2s spread	0.44 pt	0.35 pt	-0.09

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates. Spread calculated from those closes.

On Friday alone, moves were small. The 10-year slipped 1 basis point from Thursday's 5.10%, the 2-year fell 3 basis points and the 30-year was unchanged at 5.43%. The spread widened slightly from Thursday's 0.33 point, the week's narrowest. Our Oct. 15 data brief on the 10-year's drop to 5.10% has Thursday's detail.

What data came out this week?

Four reports, all pointing to energy-led price pressure:

CPI (Wednesday, Oct. 14): The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Gasoline rose 9.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year.
PPI (Thursday, Oct. 15): The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3%, the largest gain since March 2022, and 6.3% over the year, the BLS said. Final demand energy jumped 10.8%. Our September PPI brief has the full breakdown.
Retail sales (Thursday, Oct. 15): Retail and food services sales rose 0.8% to $745.0 billion, the Census Bureau said, and August was revised up to a 1.3% gain. Gasoline station sales rose 6.4%. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.
Import prices (Friday, Oct. 16): Import prices rose 1.1% in September and 8.1% over the year, the most since the year ended July 2022, the BLS said. Fuel import prices rose 4.8%. See our September import prices brief.

Why did yields fall in a week of hot inflation data?

Trading Economics said the week was turbulent, with CPI and PPI both hotter than expected, "while a rotation away from AI-related trades prompted a broader flight to safety." It said investors were weighing the Fed's policy outlook and that comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the IMF summit bolstered expectations that rates will stay unchanged this month. We did not independently verify those remarks.

Trading Economics, which tracks market quotes rather than the Treasury's par curve, put the 10-year at 5.12% on Friday, down about 14 basis points for the week.

What does this mean for the Fed's Oct. 28 decision?

Trading Economics said markets price in about an 85% probability of a hold in October and nearly a 77% chance of a quarter-point hike in December. The Fed meets Oct. 27–28, after raising its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16. See our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027 for every meeting date and decision.