Treasury Yields Dip Before CPI as 10-Year Ends at 5.21%
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.21% on Tuesday, Oct. 13, its lowest close since Sept. 25, a day before September CPI.
Why it matters
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.21% on Tuesday, Oct. 13, down from 5.24% on Friday, Oct. 9, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve. It was the lowest close since Sept. 25.
- Long-term yields fell the most. The 20-year yield dropped 5 basis points to 5.60% and the 30-year 4 basis points to 5.56%, while the 2-year slipped 1 basis point to 4.79%.
- The gap between 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed to 0.42 percentage point from 0.44. September CPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 14.
Data Brief: a summary of published data, with our notes on what it shows.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.21% on Tuesday, Oct. 13, its lowest close since Sept. 25, according to the Treasury Department's daily par yield curve. The Treasury published no yields for Monday, Oct. 12, Columbus Day, so Tuesday's figures compare with Friday, Oct. 9. The September Consumer Price Index comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 14.
How did Treasury yields move on Tuesday?
Long-term yields led the decline. The 20-year yield fell 5 basis points and the 30-year fell 4. Short-term bill yields were mixed, and the 2-year yield slipped 1 basis point.
| Maturity | Oct. 5 | Oct. 9 | Oct. 13 | Change from Oct. 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month | 4.22% | 4.25% | 4.26% | +0.01 |
| 2-year | 4.84% | 4.80% | 4.79% | -0.01 |
| 5-year | 5.06% | 5.02% | 5.00% | -0.02 |
| 10-year | 5.31% | 5.24% | 5.21% | -0.03 |
| 20-year | 5.70% | 5.65% | 5.60% | -0.05 |
| 30-year | 5.66% | 5.60% | 5.56% | -0.04 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates.
The 10-year yield is now 10 basis points below its Oct. 5 close of 5.31%, which was its highest close since 2002. It is still 42 basis points above where it started September, at 4.79% on Sept. 1. The 30-year yield matched its Sept. 28 close of 5.56%.
Is the yield curve flattening?
Slightly. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed to 0.42 percentage point on Tuesday from 0.44 on Friday, by the Treasury's figures. It was 0.47 on Oct. 5. The move is small, and one session does not set a trend.
What comes next for rates?
The September CPI, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the last inflation report scheduled before the Fed's Oct. 27–28 meeting. In August, the CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, the BLS said, and core prices rose 2.4% over the year. Our September CPI preview has the full breakdown. Producer prices follow at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, Oct. 15.
The Fed's Beige Book is due at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, according to the Fed's calendar. The Fed's next rate decision is due Oct. 28. Every meeting date and past decision is on our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027, and this week's appearances by Fed officials are in Fed speakers this week.
Figures are Treasury par yields at the close, not market quotes during the day.
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Release schedule, October 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – August 2026
- Federal Reserve Board, Calendar, October 2026
- Federal Reserve, Meeting calendars and information
