10-Year Treasury Yield Falls 9 Basis Points in Week to 5.00%
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 basis points this week to 5.00% on Oct. 23 after its biggest one-day drop since at least 2025, with the Fed meeting next.
Why it matters
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% on Friday, Oct. 23, down 9 basis points from 5.09% on Oct. 16, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve. It was a second straight weekly decline.
- Nearly all of the move came Thursday, Oct. 22, when the 10-year dropped 17 basis points to 4.96%. That was the largest one-day fall in Treasury's par yield data since at least the start of 2025.
- Next week Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes on Oct. 26, $70 billion of 5-year notes on Oct. 27 and $44 billion of 7-year notes on Oct. 29, while the Fed meets Oct. 27–28.
Data Brief: a summary of published data, with our notes on what it shows.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 5.00% on Friday, Oct. 23, down 9 basis points from its Oct. 16 close of 5.09%, according to the Treasury Department's daily par yield curve. Most of the drop came in one session: the 10-year fell 17 basis points on Thursday, then rose 4 basis points on Friday.
Yields fell at every maturity from two years out, and the long end fell the most. The 10-year rose early in the week, to 5.15% on Monday, before Thursday's rally.
How did Treasury yields change this week?
| Maturity | Oct. 16 close | Oct. 23 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.74% | 4.69% | -0.05 |
| 5-year | 4.89% | 4.82% | -0.07 |
| 7-year | 4.98% | 4.89% | -0.09 |
| 10-year | 5.09% | 5.00% | -0.09 |
| 30-year | 5.43% | 5.33% | -0.10 |
| 10s–2s spread | 0.35 pt | 0.31 pt | -0.04 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates. Spread calculated from those closes.
Day by day, the 10-year closed at 5.15% on Monday, 5.12% on Tuesday, 5.13% on Wednesday, 4.96% on Thursday and 5.00% on Friday, Treasury data show. Thursday's 17-basis-point fall was the largest daily drop in Treasury's par data for 2025 and 2026; the next biggest were 14 basis points, on April 3 and Aug. 1, 2025. On Friday the 2-year and 30-year also rose 4 basis points each. Our 10-year Treasury yield today page tracks the latest close and the 2026 range.
What moved Treasury yields this week?
Trading Economics tied Thursday's drop to "a broad flight to safety triggered by renewed equity market volatility." It cited concerns about stretched AI valuations and heavy investment spending, and reports of possible further U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. On Friday, it said, yields rose as oil prices climbed on concerns about an escalation in the Middle East. We did not independently verify those reports.
The week's U.S. data were light:
- Jobless claims (Thursday, Oct. 22): Initial claims fell 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ended Oct. 17, the Labor Department said. The four-week average was 197,750.
- Consumer sentiment (Friday, Oct. 23): The University of Michigan's final October index was 48.0, from 48.1 in September. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, and long-run expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%, the survey said.
What is next for Treasury yields?
Supply and the Fed. Treasury announced Oct. 22 that it will sell $69 billion of 2-year notes on Monday, Oct. 26, $70 billion of 5-year notes on Tuesday, Oct. 27, $30 billion of 2-year floating rate notes on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and $44 billion of 7-year notes on Thursday, Oct. 29, all settling Nov. 2, TreasuryDirect data show. Our Treasury auction schedule and results lists every sale.
Will the Fed change rates at its Oct. 27–28 meeting?
Markets expect a hold. Trading Economics said Friday that markets price about a 91% chance of no change next week and about 76% odds of a quarter-point hike in December. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16. Its next meetings are Oct. 27–28 and Dec. 8–9, and only the December meeting comes with new economic projections, the Fed's calendar shows. See our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027 for every date and decision.
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 (accessed Oct. 23, 2026; latest row Oct. 23)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2025 (accessed Oct. 23, 2026)
- TreasuryDirect, upcoming auctions data (accessed Oct. 23, 2026)
- U.S. Department of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (Oct. 22, 2026)
- University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers (final October 2026, accessed Oct. 23, 2026)
- ABC News, Consumer sentiment nears all-time low ahead of midterms (Oct. 23, 2026)
- Trading Economics, United States 10-Year Bond Yield (Oct. 22–23, 2026)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Meeting calendars and information (accessed Oct. 23, 2026)
