Treasury Sees $618 Billion Borrowing This Quarter, $800 Billion Next

The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt in the October–December 2026 quarter, it said at 3 p.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 2. That is $10 billion less than its August estimate. Treasury also put January–March 2027 borrowing at $800 billion.

The October–December figure assumes Treasury ends December with $850 billion in cash, the same balance it assumed in August, the release said. Treasury said the lower estimate was "primarily due to the higher-than-assumed beginning of quarter cash balance," partly offset by lower projected net cash flows. Without that larger starting balance, the estimate would be $24 billion higher than in August.

How do the new borrowing estimates compare with August?

Quarter	August 3 estimate	November 2 estimate	Change
July–Sept. 2026 borrowing	$739 billion	$742 billion (actual)	+$3 billion*
July–Sept. 2026 end cash	$950 billion	$984 billion (actual)	+$34 billion
Oct.–Dec. 2026 borrowing	$628 billion	$618 billion	-$10 billion
Oct.–Dec. 2026 end cash	$850 billion	$850 billion	none
Jan.–March 2027 borrowing	not estimated	$800 billion	—
Jan.–March 2027 end cash	not estimated	$1.000 trillion	—

Source: U.S. Treasury borrowing estimates of Aug. 3 and Nov. 2, 2026, and the November sources and uses table. *Treasury's release describes the July–September gap as $4 billion; the rounded figures differ by $3 billion.

Treasury borrowed $742 billion in July–September and ended September with $984 billion in cash, above the $950 billion it had assumed. Excluding that larger cash pile, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than estimated in August, Treasury said.

Treasury's sources and uses table puts its October–December financing need at $666 billion, up $20 billion from August. The table shows no Federal Reserve redemptions of Treasury securities in any of the quarters estimated. For the Fed's policy calendar, see our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027.

Why does Treasury borrowing matter for yields?

Borrowing estimates show how much new debt investors must absorb. More supply can push yields up, all else equal, especially if it comes as longer-dated notes and bonds rather than bills. The 10-year yield closed at 4.91% on Monday, down 3 basis points from Friday, Treasury's par yield data show; our 10-year Treasury yield today page tracks the latest close.

What comes next in the refunding?

Treasury will release the rest of its financing plans at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 4, the release said. That statement sets the sizes of the quarterly refunding auctions. TreasuryDirect lists a new 3-year note for Monday, Nov. 9, a new 10-year note for Tuesday, Nov. 10, and a new 30-year bond for Thursday, Nov. 12, all settling Nov. 16, with amounts to be announced Nov. 4.

In August, Treasury sold $58 billion of 3-year notes, $42 billion of 10-year notes and $25 billion of 30-year bonds in its refunding. It said then that it "anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." Our Treasury auction schedule and results page will list Wednesday's sizes.