10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.94% in Fed Week as 2-Year Drops
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points this week to 4.94% on Oct. 30, while the 2-year fell 13 basis points to 4.56% after the Fed held rates.
Why it matters
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.94% on Friday, Oct. 30, down 6 basis points from 5.00% on Oct. 23, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve. It was a fourth straight weekly decline.
- Short-term yields fell most. The 2-year dropped 13 basis points to 4.56%, and the gap between the 10-year and 2-year widened to 0.38 percentage point from 0.31.
- The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 in a 10–2 vote. Treasury publishes its next borrowing estimates Nov. 2 and its refunding statement Nov. 4, and the October jobs report is due Nov. 6.
Data Brief: a summary of published data, with our notes on what it shows.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.94% on Friday, Oct. 30, down 6 basis points from 5.00% on Oct. 23, according to the Treasury Department's daily par yield curve. The 2-year yield fell 13 basis points to 4.56%, so short-term yields led a week that included a Fed decision, the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and $213 billion of note auctions.
The 10-year's close was its lowest since Sept. 17, when it was also 4.94%, Treasury data show. The curve steepened: the 10s–2s spread widened 7 basis points.
How did Treasury yields change this week?
| Maturity | Oct. 23 close | Oct. 30 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.69% | 4.56% | -0.13 |
| 5-year | 4.82% | 4.71% | -0.11 |
| 7-year | 4.89% | 4.80% | -0.09 |
| 10-year | 5.00% | 4.94% | -0.06 |
| 30-year | 5.33% | 5.31% | -0.02 |
| 10s–2s spread | 0.31 pt | 0.38 pt | +0.07 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates. Spread calculated from those closes.
Day by day, the 10-year closed at 5.00% on Monday, 4.99% on Tuesday, 5.05% on Wednesday, 4.98% on Thursday and 4.94% on Friday. The 2-year closed at 4.68%, 4.70%, 4.67%, 4.61% and 4.56%. Our 10-year Treasury yield today page tracks the latest close and the 2026 range.
What moved Treasury yields this week?
- The Fed (Wednesday, Oct. 28): The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10–2; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike, the statement said. It said "inflation remains elevated" and activity "is expanding at a strong pace." That day the 10-year rose 6 basis points while the 2-year fell 3. Our October 2026 Fed decision story has the details.
- GDP and PCE (Thursday, Oct. 29): Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. In a separate release, BEA said the PCE price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year earlier. Core PCE rose 0.3% and 3.1%. The 10-year fell 7 basis points that day.
- Wages (Friday, Oct. 30): The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3.4% over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Wages and salaries rose 0.7%, after 0.9% in the second quarter.
- Auctions: Treasury sold $69 billion of 2-year notes at a 4.708% high yield on Monday, $70 billion of 5-year notes at 4.845% on Tuesday and $44 billion of 7-year notes at 4.894% on Thursday, TreasuryDirect data show. Each high yield was below September's: 4.787%, 5.033% and 5.085%. Bid-to-cover ratios were 2.59, 2.33 and 2.46. See our Treasury auction schedule and results.
Trading Economics tied Friday's decline to a sell-off in technology stocks after disappointing earnings. We did not independently verify that.
What is next for Treasury yields?
Supply and jobs. Treasury will release its financing estimates on Monday, Nov. 2, and its quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday, Nov. 4, its refunding documents page shows. The refunding statement sets note and bond sizes for the coming quarter. BLS will publish the October jobs report on Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the November report on Friday, Dec. 4.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
That is undecided. The Fed's last 2026 meeting is Dec. 8–9, and it comes with new economic projections, the Fed's calendar shows. Trading Economics said Friday that markets priced roughly a 72% to 75% chance of a December hike, citing the CME FedWatch Tool. See our FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 and 2027 for every date and decision.
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 (accessed Oct. 30, 2026; latest row Oct. 30)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Meeting calendars and information (accessed Oct. 30, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 (Oct. 29, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 (Oct. 29, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index – September 2026 (Oct. 30, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation release schedule (accessed Oct. 30, 2026)
- TreasuryDirect, auctioned securities data (accessed Oct. 30, 2026)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Most Recent Quarterly Refunding Documents (accessed Oct. 30, 2026)
- Trading Economics, United States 10-Year Bond Yield (Oct. 30, 2026)
